🏀 UConn vs. Michigan Prediction: Best MVP Bets & Player Props for the National Championship

With everything on the line tonight in the NCAA Tournament championship, someone will emerge as a hero and take home March Madness MVP honors.

As part of my UConn vs. Michigan prediction, I'm breaking down my favorite MVP bet and long shot for each team ahead of tonight's 8:50 p.m. ET tip (TBS/truTV/HBO Max) from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Michigan enters as a 6.5-point betting favorite.

For more on the championship, check out our March Madness predictions.

🔮 UConn vs. Michigan prediction: Best MVP bets & player props

See the latest March Madness MVP odds.

🐺 UConn MVP bets & prop picks

See the latest UConn vs. Michigan odds for the championship game tonight.

Best MVP bet: Tarris Reed Jr. (+450)

If UConn pulls off the upset and wins its third championship in four years under Dan Hurley, there's almost no way Tarris Reed Jr. won't take home MVP honors.

Reed's been the best player in the NCAA Tournament thus far, averaging 20.8 PPG, 13 RPG, 2.4 APG, and 1.8 BPG while shooting 58.2% from the floor.

The Michigan transfer will need to have the best game of his career to take down a Wolverines team that's anchored by the best frontcourt in the country.

A key to a UConn win may be Reed's passing out of the post with his interior presence opening things up for his teammate behind the arc. He's dished out at least three assists in three of five NCAA Tournament games.

✅ Player prop: Over 2.5 assists (+105 via bet365)

Long shot MVP bet: Alex Karaban (+2000)

The only player remaining from Hurley's first two championships at UConn, Alex Karaban, has a chance to join rare air by winning a third NCAA Tournament title.

The senior has been a steady hand throughout March Madness with three 17-plus-point performances and the assist to set up Braylon Mullins' game-winning three against Duke. 

Averaging 16 PPG, Karaban's 3-point shooting will need to be at its best tonight. He's hit at least three triples in three of five March Madness games, and with Michigan's paint defense, perimeter shooting is going to need to be how UConn finds success on offense.

Karaban's the best UConn long shot because the captain is already a Huskies legend and could take home Most Outstanding Player as a legacy award.

✅ Player prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+135 via DraftKings)

〽️ Michigan MVP bets & prop picks

Check out our breakdown of our UConn vs. Michigan prediction using efficiency trends to pick a champion.

Best MVP bet: Aday Mara (+200)

After his Final Four showing, Aday Mara jumped up the board to become the favorite to win Most Outstanding Player. The 7-foot-3 Spaniard looked like Victor Wembanyama against No. 1 seed Arizona on Saturday, finishing with 26 points, nine rebounds, three assists, and two blocks.

Despite playing just 24.4 MPG in the NCAA Tournament due to Michigan's winning by an average margin of 21.6 points, Mara is still putting up 16 PPG on 65.4% shooting, 6.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, and 2.6 BPG.

Although Yaxel Lendeborg is an All-American and the team's best player, Mara has been Dusty May's X-factor all season. To win tonight, he needs to have another career game and slow a UConn attack that leans heavily on 2-pointers.

If he can stymie Reed down low, the former UCLA backup will win March Madness MVP.

✅ Player prop: Over 2.5 blocks (+135 via bet365)

Long shot MVP bet: Trey McKenney (+3000)

The most underrated piece to Michigan's historically dominant run has been Trey McKenney. The freshman isn't even a starter but he's shined throughout the NCAA Tournament and had his two best March Madness performances against Michigan toughest opponents.

In the Sweet 16 against Alabama and Final Four against Arizona, McKenney combined for 35 points and went 7-for-11 from three (63.6%). He's hit double-digit points in four of five NCAA Tournament games while averaging 12.6 PPG and shooting 52.4% from deep.

If he can stay hot off the bench from three, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound guard could be the catalyst for another blowout win by Michigan.

McKenney's odds are far too long at our best March Madness betting sites for how well he's played in the tournament.

✅ Player prop: Over 9.5 points (+105 via bet365)

🏆️ UConn vs. Michigan prediction

Michigan -6.5 (-110)

Yes, Hurley and UConn seem to have black magic on their side, but I will not waver from my UConn vs. Michigan prediction. The Wolverines are one win away from going down as an all-time team, and they have the best net rating of any program over the last 30 years (+39.72).

Michigan is better in every way than UConn, and I expect them to win a sixth straight tournament game by double digits behind the rim protection of Mara and a deep bench led by McKenney.

✅ Score prediction: Michigan 76, UConn 66