🏀 South Carolina vs. UCLA Prediction Today: Women's March Madness Championship Picks

Fresh off ending UConn's unbeaten season, top-ranked South Carolina heads into the national championship as the betting favorite. Even so, the Gamecocks face a stiff test against a 36-1 UCLA team with its sights set on a first national title.

My South Carolina vs. UCLA prediction today for Sunday's 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN) women's March Madness national championship at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix centers on how well both teams have defended all season.

South Carolina is a 3.5-point betting favorite, but my women's March Madness predictions are targeting the total.

🏀 South Carolina vs. UCLA picks & odds: Women's March Madness championship

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 6 units | Max profit: 5.62 units

🏆 Who will win South Carolina vs. UCLA?

I'm taking South Carolina to win a low-scoring game by five points, because the Gamecocks' defense has been incredible in this tournament, never allowing more than 68 points, while holding two of the nation's top 14 shooting offenses to 33% or worse from the floor in back-to-back games.

Score prediction: South Carolina 64, UCLA 59

💰 South Carolina vs. UCLA prediction & best bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Under 131.5 (-110)

Each of these defenses allows 57.3 or fewer points per game. South Carolina held UConn to just 48, while the Huskies' previous low this season was 63. Meanwhile, UCLA held Texas to 31% from the floor.

While both teams average at least 84.9 points per game, both offenses have cooled in the Elite Eight and Final Four, with neither team scoring more than 78 in a game. Both teams have seen back-to-back games feature 130 points or fewer, and I expect a similar result with both defenses holding opponents below 36.5% from the field.

🔥 Best South Carolina vs. UCLA player prop bet

Lauren Betts Under 17.5 points (-104)

I loved Betts to score fewer than 17.5 points in the Final Four, and once again, her point total is being set based on hype, not actual performance. Betts scored 16 points against Texas, giving her 16 or fewer points in seven of her last nine games against ranked opponents.

Betts has only scored more than 18 points in three of her 16 games against ranked teams this season. Additionally, nothing about this matchup is favorable. South Carolina is allowing just 57.3 points per game, and Madina Okot, who Betts will primarily be matched up with, averages 1.7 blocks per game.

At the time of writing, only FanDuel is offering this prop, and the sportsbook is heavily favoring the Over. Betts is averaging 17.2 points per game, but based on her recent performances against ranked teams, there is no reason to wait for a better price or higher number.

🚀 South Carolina vs. UCLA same-game parlay

Both offenses have been excellent this season, but when it comes to evenly contested games, it's the defenses that show up. UCLA has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 62 or fewer, but I also anticipate offensive struggles for the Bruins, especially Betts, against a defense that just held UConn's second-ranked offense to 48 points. Ultimately, it will be the South Carolina offense, led by five players scoring double figures, that makes enough shots to cover 3.5 points.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting South Carolina vs. UCLA: Women's March Madness

Betts scoring fewer than 17.5 points is the play of the day. She has consistently struggled against ranked teams, and with how good South Carolina's defense is, I'm risking three units on her Under. While these offenses have dominated weak competition all season, the Final Four showed what we should expect when they face more evenly matched foes. UCLA only managed 51 points against Texas, and with South Carolina holding UConn's excellent offense to just 48, this is an easy two-unit play for me. While I'm less confident in South Carolina covering 3.5 points, I'm risking one unit on the Gamecocks defense, which is seventh in the country in blocks, to protect the basket and cover this small spread.

📊 Live South Carolina vs. UCLA odds: Women's March Madness championship

The public has been all over South Carolina and the Under since the opening lines came out. The total was originally set at 133.5, but it has since dropped to at least 131.5 at our best March Madness betting sites, and some are even listing 130.

After what happened in the Final Four, I expect the total to keep dropping, so get in as soon as possible for the most value on the Under. As for the spread, South Carolina was originally favored by 1.5, and the number has jumped to 3.5. At FanDuel, the price is -124 for South Carolina to cover, suggesting the spread is about to climb to 4.5.

🤑 Latest South Carolina vs. UCLA betting splits

Betting insights via BetMGM.

📺 How to watch South Carolina vs. UCLA: Women's March Madness championship

• Date: Sunday, April 5
• Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
• TV: ABC/ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN+