🏀 Rockets vs. Warriors Player Props Tonight: NBA Picks for Curry's Return (April 5)
📡 SBR Edge: Curry Disappoints in First Game Back
My Rockets vs. Warriors player props tonight feature Stephen Curry Under 19.5 points (-110). He should be less aggressive on offense after missing over two months with a knee injury. My NBA best bet, however, is Kevin Durant Under 24.5 points (-114), as he doesn't go out of his way to stuff the stat sheet against his former team.
π Best Rockets vs. Warriors player props tonight: NBA picks for April 5
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant Under 24.5 points | -114 via DraftKings | 1.14u -> 1u | Has gone 3-1 to the Under vs. GS in last 4 games |
| Stephen Curry Under 19.5 points | -110 via BetMGM | 1.1u -> 1u | Should be less aggressive coming off knee injury |
Total wagered: 2.24 units | Max profit: 2 units
π° Best Rockets vs. Warriors prop bet
The Rockets have the ninth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Kevin Durant Under 24.5 points (-114)
You'd expect Durant to be more aggressive against Golden State - especially since he left after clashing with Draymond Green - but that hasnβt been the case in recent meetings. Durant has gone under this line in three of his last four matchups with Golden State dating back to last season.
Additionally, he hasn't been very aggressive on offense lately, attempting a median of 15 shots per game over his last five, despite making 40 of 76 in that span. This bet is -114 at DraftKings, but I would play it up to -135 on the best sports betting sites.
💸 Lakers vs. Mavericks expert picks
I bet Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 points (-125) - along with a LeBron James prop - in my Lakers vs. Mavericks player props.
π₯ More Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Stephen Curry Under 19.5 points (-110)
Curry is 38 years old and is returning from a knee injury that has kept him sidelined since Jan. 30. Itβs very unlikely that Warriors coach Steve Kerr will give him heavy minutes, or that Curry will be highly aggressive in his first game action in over two months.
He scored 19 points or fewer in three of his final seven games in January - and that was when he was fully healthy. BetMGM lists Curry Under 19.5 points at -110, but this bet is good up to -125 on the best NBA betting sites.
🏀 More NBA player props for April 5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Brandon Miller, and Precious Achiuwa headline my NBA player props tonight.
ποΈ Most-bet NBA player props today
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props today (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | Under 7.5 rebounds + assists | +110 |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | Under 16.5 points | -110 |
| Draymond Green | Warriors | Over 11.5 rebounds + assists | -115 |
| Quenton Jackson | Pacers | Under 7.5 rebounds + assists | -110 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | Grizzlies | Under 10.5 rebounds + assists | -125 |
It's interesting to see so many rebounds + assists combo props on the most-bet list at BetMGM. While combo bets are popular, you usually don't see four of the same on the top-five list - especially so many Unders.
Naji Marshall has recorded fewer than eight rebounds + assists in three straight games - and five of his last six - so getting plus money on Under 7.5 is not a bad play at all. While the +110 is no longer available, I would still consider playing it at +105.
π Rockets vs. Warriors same-game parlay
With Durant Under 24.5 points being my favorite bet for this matchup, the best way I know to approach this SGP is to bet on the Rockets to win in a rout.
The more the Rockets win by, the fewer minutes Durant will play in the fourth quarter, and bet365 is underestimating the probability of these outcomes happening simultaneously. Meanwhile, FanDuel lists this parlay at +375 odds.
💵 Rockets vs. Warriors SGP picks
- Durant Under 24.5 points
- Rockets alt spread -9.5
Best odds: +500 via bet365 (0.2u -> 1u)
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 90-100-3 | -12.67 units β | -5.6% β |
| Player props | 84-81-3 | -14.54 units β | -6.8% β |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units β | 87% β |
| Parlays | 5-19 | +0.37 units β | 4.7% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Rockets vs. Warriors
Iβm allocating 2.24 units for this game - roughly what Iβd put on two standard NBA player props.
I like both of these plays directionally, but neither is priced far enough from where Iβd set the line to justify a higher stake. A stronger edge would push me toward 2.5 units on a single bet, or as high as 5 units in a once-in-a-year scenario.
π Rockets vs. Warriors injuries
πΊ How to watch Rockets vs. Warriors
- Date: Sunday, April 5
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Chase Center (San Francisco)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
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