🏀 Lakers vs. Mavericks Player Props Tonight: NBA Picks & Best Bets (April 5)
📡 SBR Edge: James Steps Up With Doncic, Reaves Out
My Lakers vs. Mavericks player props tonight feature Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 points (-125). He has attempted 19 or more shots in three consecutive games and faces a Lakers defense with little motivation heading into the postseason. I wrap up my NBA best bets with LeBron James Over 9.5 assists (-113), as he will have to fully take over point-guard duties with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and Marcus Smart all out.
🏀 Best Lakers vs. Mavericks player props tonight: NBA picks for April 5
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 points | -125 via BetMGM | 1.25u -> 1u | Has attempted 19+ shots in 3 straight games |
| LeBron James Over 9.5 assists | -113 via DraftKings | 1.13u -> 1u | Has recorded 10+ assists in last 4 games w/o Luka |
Total wagered: 2.38 units | Max profit: 2 units
💰 Best Lakers vs. Mavericks prop bet
Cooper Flagg is a +275 underdog in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 points (-125)
Flagg is trying to close the gap between himself and Kon Knueppel in the Rookie of the Year race, and he has been extra aggressive offensively in the process. He has attempted 19+ shots in three straight games, including a 51-point outing last time out.
He has scored 24+ points in four of his last six, and against a Lakers defense that knows it no longer has a realistic shot at a championship, he should be able to hit this. This bet is -125 at BetMGM, but I would play it up to -150 on the best sports betting sites.
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🔥 More Lakers vs. Mavericks prop picks
The Lakers have the 17th-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals after Austin Reaves' injury.
LeBron James Over 9.5 assists (-113)
This is the Lakers' pecking order when it comes to setting up the offense: Doncic, then James, then Reaves. With both Doncic and Reaves out - and the Lakers looking like the worst playoff-bound roster - it will be up to James to handle the true point-guard duties.
He has recorded 10+ assists in each of his last four games playing without Doncic, and neither Reaves nor Smart being available should only increase his odds of hitting this. DraftKings lists James Over 9.5 assists at -113, but this bet is good up to -130 on the best NBA betting sites.
🏀 More NBA player props for April 5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Brandon Miller, and Precious Achiuwa headline my NBA player props tonight.
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props today
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props today (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | Under 7.5 rebounds + assists | +110 |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | Under 16.5 points | -110 |
| Draymond Green | Warriors | Over 11.5 rebounds + assists | -115 |
| Quenton Jackson | Pacers | Under 7.5 rebounds + assists | -110 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | Grizzlies | Under 10.5 rebounds + assists | -125 |
It's interesting to see so many rebounds + assists combo props on the most-bet list at BetMGM. While combo bets are popular, you usually don't see four of the same on the top-five list - especially so many Unders.
Naji Marshall has recorded fewer than eight rebounds + assists in three straight games - and five of his last six - so getting plus money on Under 7.5 is not a bad play at all. While the +110 is no longer available, I would still consider playing it at +105.
🚀 Lakers vs. Mavericks same-game parlay
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
While my favorite bet in this game is Flagg Over 23.5 points, I couldn't find a great dance partner for it to include in a parlay.
While the market is efficient, there is a lot of uncertainty in this game with all the injuries, and I believe bet365 is underestimating the probability of the Mavericks winning by 3+ (still one possession) and James recording 10+ assists.
💵 Lakers vs. Mavericks SGP picks
- James Over 9.5 assists
- Mavericks alt spread -2.5
Best odds: +330 via bet365 (0.3u -> 1u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 90-100-3 | -12.67 units ❌ | -5.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 84-81-3 | -14.54 units ❌ | -6.8% ❌ |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units ✅ | 87% ✅ |
| Parlays | 5-19 | +0.37 units ✅ | 4.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Lakers vs. Mavericks
I'm allocating 2.38 units for this game - roughly what I'd put on two standard NBA player props.
I like both of these plays directionally, but neither is priced far enough from my own line to justify a heavier stake. A stronger edge would push me toward 2.5 units on a single bet, or as high as 5 units in an exceptional spot that might come around once a year.
🚑 Lakers vs. Mavericks injuries
📺 How to watch Lakers vs. Mavericks
- Date: Sunday, April 5
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
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